The Players This Formula Has Gotten Right
December 1, 2014
This formula has been accurate so far and has helped me scout many players and sometimes just sit back and watch the draft and see the Kings screw up pick after pick in almost every draft, or watch teams like the Thunder, the Grizzlies, or the Mavericks who draft based on analytics and advanced metrics. Those teams really stand out in that department. A key to this formula is being able to comprehend what the number means and which types of players tend to succeed and which players might bust, even with a positive number. What I've noticed throughout the last few years is the guards have been very accurate, the power forwards have also been very accurate, the centers have been mostly accurate and the small forwards, but mostly tweeners have been the least accurate. So I tend not to get too excited over the tweeners who rank high because sometimes it takes them a while or even to find the perfect situation for them to hit their ceiling.
Here are some of the players that this formula has gotten correct over the last few years:
Lance Stephenson (0.10)- 2nd round pick, great 2nd round value. He's always been more of point guard, even in Indy he was their point guard on more possessions than not. If he can play more of a point guard role, he should be a good player wherever he's at.
Klay Thompson (0.71)- One of the best shooting guards in the league. He was a no brainer pick, imo, a 6-7 guard with this high of a ranking that could also shoot coming out of college, he's quickly becoming a star.
Still a bit early but…
MCW (1.05)- The only question about him coming out of college was his jumper, which seems to be improving fast. Can bring so much to the table eventually.
Victor Oladipo (0.60)- Same question as MCW coming out of college, can he shoot? He's also improving his shot quickly.
I just want note that I use 5 different formulas for all 5 positions. I just call them guards and forwards because that's the way the NBA is going now, in essence you want 2 ball handlers (unless your small forward is a good ball handler), 2 forwards that can spread the floor and do similar things (hence the popular stretch 4), and one center to protect the rim from the ball handling guards and forwards. So, yeah, that's why I list the players like that in the rankings, but there's really 5 different formulas that I use.
Paul George (1.16)- It took a few years for him to develop into a highly impactful 2 way player, but the ranking struck it out of the park with him. With his shooting, ball handling ability, and athleticism with a ranking this high coming out of college, I would have considered him a top 3 lock. I know hindsight is 20/20, but this was his ranking coming out of college whenever I would've ranked him, it's hard to pass that up.
Kawhi Leonard (0.36)- He was knocked a lot in the rankings because of his shooting, if you would have told me he would develop a deadly 3 point shot, he'd be a no-brainer top 5 pick. I'd like to think even if he wasn't a good 3 point shooter, that he'd still be a good player in the NBA, but with a great 3 point shot, he's more than lived up to his ranking.
Kenneth Faried (0.34)- Solid starting power forward in the mid to late first round, yeah I'd take that, good overall player.
Derrick Williams (-0.33)- The rankings did not love him, but he could shoot, so there's always that possibility he becomes a solid role player because of that. But with the 2nd overall pick… not worth it Kahn.
Anthony Davis (1.74)- The highest ranked player in the database, need I say more.
Draymond Green (0.58)- A fairly highly ranked player that was vastly overlooked by a lot of teams. He's a combo forward, meaning he can play both positions successfully. He is a good player and is only improving. Because he could shoot and dribble coming out of college that would have alleviated my tweener concerns, I would've drafted him mid-1st round, no reason to draft him sooner, he was projected to go in the 2nd round.
Thomas Robinson (-0.18)- Why Sacramento why? Demarcus Cousins fell to you, so maybe you should pair him with an average sized power forward that can't shoot, and has no real post moves that he can pull off two times in a row. The rankings didn't agree with him being picked this high, and his motor is the only thing that he has that can make him a role player… Kings.
Demarcus Cousins (0.87- The only real question was his child-like attitude, but he plays hard, he's always played hard, so what if he gets a few more technicals than the guys drafted before him. He would've been my number 1 pick, he didn't implode on possibly the least stable team and in the least stable locker room in the NBA, I'm thinking he would've fine no matter where he got drafted.
Andre Drummond (0.63)- There were real questions about his attitude and love for the game. But I watched a beast and a freak at UConn who never got the ball due to selfish guards, combined with his shot-blocking, rebounding and athleticism, with this ranking; he would've been a top 2-3 pick for me.
Still a bit early but…
Gorgui Dieng (0.73)- Shot-blocking, a good looking shot, and rebounding with this ranking, why did he fall so far? His age? Try calling the Timberwolves about him for a trade, they'll either hang up or ask for a star. He should've gone much higher.
Steven Adams (0.30)- A rim protector that is tough, rebounds, and can annoy Blake Griffin for an entire game. OKC reached for him based on conventional wisdom. The formula agreed with the pick.
Coming Soon, The Players This Formula Has Gotten Wrong
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