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The Players This Formula Has Gotten Wrong

December 4, 2014

I just wrote about some of the players that this formula has gotten right, now it's time to go over some of the players this formula has gotten wrong. Coming back down to reality and off my high horse and realizing that the NBA draft is an inexact science, and no matter how much you think you know about it, you're still going to miss on quite a few players. It's funny when you talk to critics and they point out the players you've gotten wrong, but through the years I pride myself on understanding what the number I get means and even if a player has a high number, they still might bust because of certain things, some basketball related and some mental. I'm not going to change the formula, but I know that small forwards that can't shoot, or dribble that well, no matter their final ranking may still bust, but I can use that to my advantage. It's all about understanding what the number means. And also wing players mostly small forwards that rank below zero but can either shoot or dribble and create well in the half court can still be very solid players.

Marshon Brooks (0.43)-He was a selfish player in college. He seemed unwilling to adapt and be a role player in the NBA. Doing that his first few years could have given him the chance to turn into second or third scorer on a team. I don't exactly know what happened with him, but for a guy that could score from the wing in a plethora of ways to be where he is now is strange.
Jared Cunningham (0.37)-It might be too early for him, but he has a ton of talent and upside. I'm kind of shocked he hasn't gotten a chance to show what he can do yet, it's possible he always been in the wrong situation.

One to thing to mention is this formula does not take into account off the court issues, work-ethic, and other things of that nature (obviously). Unless you see them practice every day, you really don't know hard these guys are working. That could be the reason some of them have failed to live up to their ranking.

Al-Farouq Aminu (0.68)-Kind of a tweener coming into the NBA. He could dribble in the open court, but his ability to create for himself in the half-court was weak. His main weakness was his jump shot, mostly his 3 point shot. He's hasn't improved that too much, hence why he hasn't gotten consistent minutes, he's not an offensive threat in the half court. He's also not strong enough to play power forward.
Damion James (0.17)-Another tweener of sorts. I still think there's a chance that he makes it as a stretch 4, but we'll see.
Chris Singleton (0.22)-He was a lock down defender in college with limited half court offensive skills. I'm not sure what happened here, but the Wizards have failed to develop all of their forwards the last 5 -10 years. I think he just might need a change of scenery, unless there's something going on with him I don't know about.
Chandler Parsons (-0.16)-He's one of the few players rated below zero that have become more than a niche player. Although I'm not really sure how good he is. He's found the right systems to play in. He's not that great a defender, his shot is decent (not great), but he can handle the ball in the full and half court, which is rarer than people might think for small forwards. He's a solid player that does everything okay.
Jae Crowder (0.59)-It's still too early for him. He's never really gotten his chance. I'd like to see him get traded someplace that needs a small forward. I think he's got a good career ahead of him still.
Kris Joseph (0.05)-I'm not sure what's gone on with him. He probably still struggles handling the ball in the half court. That seems to be a common weakness for the players on this list. If you can't handle the ball in the half court and keep the flow of the offense, then you almost need to be a 3 and D guy to get playing time at small forward, which these guys clearly aren't yet. It's a tough position, probably the toughest position to succeed at in the NBA today.

It's still a bit early on some of these guys, and it's still too early on some of the 2013 draft class players as well. It looks like there might be some busts according to the formula in that draft class, but they can turn it around.
Back to Top of Page...

6/2/15 - 2015 Top 20 (with comparisons)
5/19/15 - 2015 Top 8 Draft Busts
12/4/14 - The Players This Formula Has Gotten Wrong
12/1/14 - The Players This Formula Has Gotten Right
7/16/14 - 2014 NBA Draft Top 10

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