This is a complex scouting formula that I developed that combines stats, advanced stats, size/athleticism, and eye test scouting to give each prospect a number that a)predicts whether that player will be a good/quality NBA player (0 or above), or a possible niche NBA player (below 0), and b)predicts a players two-way impact in the NBA*.
*Note: The player with the highest number isn't always the best player to take #1 overall and so on and so forth because a player with elite scoring potential is rarer than a player with elite defensive potential (i.e. each team has 2-3 defensive stoppers, or what they like to consider premier defensive players, and only 18 players averaged more than 20 ppg during the 2013-2014 season). So to use this formula correctly, after this number is formulated, and it gives you a good idea of who the good/quality NBA players will be out of the draft and which players will have to find a niche to stay in the NBA and be solid/productive players, you should still do more eye test scouting to find the player with the most rare/valuable skills (i.e. elite offensive potential) and draft or mock draft accordingly to what fits your team the best and/or what team needs are. Or just take the best offensive prospect with the highest number in the vicinity.
The eye test scouting part is highly non-debatable. I use a series of questions that I give values (i.e 1-4) to players to use in this part of the formula.
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
G Michael Carter-Williams | 1.05 |
G Victor Oladipo | 0.60 |
G C.J. McCollum | 0.58 |
G Jamaal Franklin | 0.28 |
G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 0.25 |
G Trey Burke | 0.18 |
G Nate Wolters | 0.18 |
G Peyton Siva | 0.07 |
G Isaiah Cannon | -0.02 |
G Ray McCallum | -0.03 |
G Lorenzo Brown | -0.04 |
G Carrick Felix | -0.05 |
G Allen Crabbe | -0.22 |
G Glen Rice | -0.25 |
G Shane Larkin | -0.28 |
G Ben McLemore | -0.32 |
G Myck Kabongo | -0.33 |
G Tim Hardaway Jr. | -0.39 |
G Erick Green | -0.60 |
G Matthew Dellavedova | -0.62 |
G Archie Goodwin | -0.65 |
G Pierre Jackson | -0.84 |
G Shabazz Muhammad | -0.92 |
G Sergey Karasev* | -0.96 |
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
F Nerlens Noel*** | 1.46 |
F Andre Roberson | 0.37 |
F Otto Porter | 0.20 |
F Tony Mitchell | 0.18 |
F Cody Zeller | 0.16 |
F C.J. Leslie | 0.13 |
F Ryan Kelly | -0.07 |
F James Southerland | -0.11 |
F Anthony Bennett | -0.17 |
F Solomon Hill | -0.25 |
F Trevor Mbakwe | -0.45 |
F Kelly Olynyk | -0.53 |
F Reggie Bullock | -0.56 |
F Sergey Karasev* | -0.56 |
F Tony Snell | -0.58 |
F Grant Jerrett | -0.75 |
F Romero Osby | -1.03 |
F Erik Murphy | -1.06 |
F Deshaun Thomas | -1.26 |
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
C Gorgui Dieng | 0.73 |
C Steven Adams | 0.30 |
C Alex Len*** | 0.17 |
C Mason Plumlee | 0.07 |
C Mike Muscala | -0.13 |
C Lucas Nogueira* | -0.19 |
C Rudy Gobert* | -0.20 |
C Jeff Withey | -0.30 |
C Colton Iverson | -1.00 |
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* Player did not attend U.S. college and played in Euroleague, Eurocup, ACB, etc.
**Stats are taken from U19 tournament.
***Player was more than likely red flagged by numerous teams due to injury, off-court issues, etc.
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