This is a complex scouting formula that I developed that combines stats, advanced stats, size/athleticism, and eye test scouting to give each prospect a number that a)predicts whether that player will be a good/quality NBA player (0 or above), or a possible niche NBA player (below 0), and b)predicts a players two-way impact in the NBA*.
*Note: The player with the highest number isn't always the best player to take #1 overall and so on and so forth because a player with elite scoring potential is rarer than a player with elite defensive potential (i.e. each team has 2-3 defensive stoppers, or what they like to consider premier defensive players, and only 18 players averaged more than 20 ppg during the 2013-2014 season). So to use this formula correctly, after this number is formulated, and it gives you a good idea of who the good/quality NBA players will be out of the draft and which players will have to find a niche to stay in the NBA and be solid/productive players, you should still do more eye test scouting to find the player with the most rare/valuable skills (i.e. elite offensive potential) and draft or mock draft accordingly to what fits your team the best and/or what team needs are. Or just take the best offensive prospect with the highest number in the vicinity.
The eye test scouting part is highly non-debatable. I use a series of questions that I give values (i.e 1-4) to players to use in this part of the formula.
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
G Marcus Smart | 1.20 |
G Dante Exum** | 0.75 |
G Jordan Adams | 0.65 |
G Elfrid Payton | 0.60 |
G Bogdan Bogdanovic* | 0.55 |
G Tyler Ennis | 0.53 |
G Vasilije Micic* | 0.47 |
G Deonte Burton | 0.41 |
G Russ Smith | 0.05 |
G Gary Harris | 0.00 |
G Shabazz Napier | -0.05 |
G Spencer Dinwiddie | -0.07 |
G Jordan McRae | -0.09 |
G Devyn Marble | -0.10 |
G C.J. Wilcox | -0.17 |
G Markel Brown | -0.17 |
G Nemanja Dangubic* | -0.43 |
G James Young | -0.44 |
G Jordan Clarkson | -0.47 |
G Nick Johnson | -0.55 |
G P.J. Hairston | -0.60 |
G Zach Lavine | -0.67 |
G Joe Harris | -0.67 |
G Nik Stauskas | -0.92 |
G Jahii Carson | -1.58 |
G Jabari Brown | -1.69 |
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
F Andrew Wiggins | 0.61 |
F Jabari Parker | 0.57 |
F Dario Saric* | 0.57 |
F Kyle Anderson | 0.50 |
F T.J. Warren | 0.45 |
F Noah Vonleh | 0.41 |
F K.J. McDaniels | 0.30 |
F Adriene Payne | 0.04 |
F Dwight Powell | 0.00 |
F Melvin Ejim | -0.13 |
F Cleanthony Early | -0.17 |
F Damien Inglis* | -0.21 |
F Mitch McGary | -0.23 |
F Khem Birch | -0.28 |
F James McAdoo | -0.31 |
F Aaron Gordon | -0.35 |
F Josh Huestis | -0.43 |
F DeAndre Daniels | -0.45 |
F Julius Randle | -0.47 |
F Jeremi Grant | -0.55 |
F Jarnell Stokes | -0.58 |
F Doug McDermott | -0.61 |
F Johnny O'Bryant | -0.78 |
F Rodney Hood | -1.06 |
F Glenn Robinson | -1.19 |
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
C Joel Embiid*** | 1.37 |
C Jusuf Nurkic* | 0.54 |
C Jordan Bachynski | 0.00 |
C Walter Tavares* | -0.06 |
C Clint Capela* | -0.70 |
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* Player did not attend U.S. college and played in Euroleague, Eurocup, ACB, etc.
**Stats are taken from U19 tournament.
***Player was more than likely red flagged by numerous teams due to injury, off-court issues, etc.
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