**Starting this year I added age into the formula, mainly if a player is really young. Young freshman were eventually outproducing their rankings, which is the main reason behind this change. I have not changed any of the previous years rankings but basically young freshman would be ranked a little higher.** This is a complex scouting formula that I developed that combines stats, advanced stats, size/athleticism, and eye test scouting to give each prospect a number that a)predicts whether that player will be a good/quality NBA player (0 or above), or a possible niche NBA player (below 0), and b)predicts a players two-way impact in the NBA*.
*Note: The player with the highest number isn't always the best player to take #1 overall and so on and so forth because a player with elite scoring potential is rarer than a player with elite defensive potential (i.e. each team has 2-3 defensive stoppers, or what they like to consider premier defensive players, and only 18 players averaged more than 20 ppg during the 2013-2014 season). So to use this formula correctly, after this number is formulated, and it gives you a good idea of who the good/quality NBA players will be out of the draft and which players will have to find a niche to stay in the NBA and be solid/productive players, you should still do more eye test scouting to find the player with the most rare/valuable skills (i.e. elite offensive potential) and draft or mock draft accordingly to what fits your team the best and/or what team needs are. Or just take the best offensive prospect with the highest number in the vicinity.
The eye test scouting part is highly non-debatable. I use a series of questions that I give values (i.e 1-4) to players to use in this part of the formula.
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
PG Kris Dunn | 1.46 |
SG Patrick McCaw | 0.93 |
SG Furkan Korkmaz** | 0.63 |
SG Deandre Bembry | 0.56 |
PG/SG Dejounte Murray | 0.43 |
PG Gary Payton II | 0.25 |
PG/SG Jamal Murray | 0.12 |
SG Buddy Hield | 0.12 |
Sg Denzel Valentine | 0.10 |
PG Kay Felder | 0.10 |
SG Timothe Luwawu* | 0.06 |
SG Caris LeVert | 0.01 |
SG Isaiah Whitehead | -0.10 |
PG Tyler Ulis | -0.11 |
PG Marcus Paige | -0.12 |
PG Tim Quarterman | -0.22 |
SG Michael Gbinije | -0.24 |
PG Wade Baldwin | -0.27 |
PG Demetrius Jackson | -0.32 |
SG Malik Beasely | -0.34 |
SG SG Wayne Selden | -0.44 |
SG Malcolm Brogdon | -0.49 |
SG Isaiah Cousins | -0.50 |
PG Yogi Ferrell | -0.57 |
PG Cat Barber | -0.59 |
SG Sheldon McClellan | -0.67 |
PG Isaiah Taylor | -1.00 |
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
SF Brandon Ingram | 1.28 |
SF/PF Ben Simmons | 1.03 |
SF/PF Marquese Chriss | 0.80 |
SF Taurean Prince | 0.54 |
PF Henry Ellenson | 0.49 |
SF Timothe Luwawu* | 0.46 |
PF Pascal Siakam | 0.23 |
SF Jake Layman | 0.18 |
PF Skal Labissiere | 0.15 |
PF Ben Bentil | 0.15 |
SF Malachi Richardson | 0.15 |
PF Brice Johnson | 0.11 |
PF Robert Carter | -0.04 |
SF/PF Georges Niang | -0.06 |
PF Petr Cornelle* | -0.08 |
PF Jarrod Uthoff | -0.18 |
SF Jaylen Brown | -0.22 |
SF Dorian Finney-Smith | -0.22 |
SF Juan Hernangomez* | -0.29 |
PF Joel Bolomboy | -0.63 |
SF Derrick Jones | -0.66 |
PF Perry Ellis | -0.83 |
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
C Zhou Qi** | 0.63 |
C Deyonte Davis | 0.28 |
C Diamond Stone | 0.11 |
C Stephen Zimmerman | 0.06 |
C Skal Labissiere | 0.05 |
C Jakob Poeltl | 0.03 |
C Domatas Sabonis | -0.16 |
C Chinanu Onuaku | -0.23 |
C A.J. Hammons | -0.24 |
C Damian Jones | -0.43 |
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*Player did not attend U.S. college and played in Euroleague, Eurocup, ACB, etc.
**Stats are taken from U18/U19 tournament.
***Player was more than likely red flagged by numerous teams due to injury, off-court issues, etc.
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